Weather Outlook for the Round The Island Race 1st July 2017

General Situation (all times in BST)

There is rather a procession of lows over the next few days. Today we are in between two, with one centred over S Scandinavia & the next one just SW of Ireland. This next low should move slowly NE overnight into Tuesday, with another weak low developing over N France which will drive the Channel weather. This should give us light to moderate SE to NE today & tomorrow with more cloud and some quite heavy rain on Tuesday.

The low to the N should become dominant on Tuesday night into Wednesday & Thursday, bringing a NW backing W/WSW airflow with a succession of weak troughs & fronts bringing a mixture of sunshine & showers, some quite heavy.

By Friday it should be off to the E, with N/NW flow over the south coast, quite strong at times with squally showers. This should be followed by a new low bringing moderate to strong WNW/W on Saturday with a mostly dry day and a mixture of sunshine & broken cloud. Saturday is expected to be around 15-17˚C, which will feel 3-4˚C less on the water with wind chill. Visibility should be good, moderate in any rain. Sea state S of the Island will probably be around 2m with this forecast. This should continue into Sunday too.

Gusts are likely to be 1/3 as much again as the average wind speed. Squall-driven gusts may be more – the deeper the cloud, the stronger the gust.

Monday 26th: ESE/ENE 6-10 kts through the day, cloudy to start, brightening later. 19˚C. Probably 1-2 kts more around the entrance to the Medina. Met Office: E/ESE 6-10; ECMWF: E/ESE 7-10; NOAA’s GFS model: E/SE 8-11.

Tuesday 27th: E/ESE 8-12 (gusting 18) kts before noon, easing & veering SE 6-10 kts after, veering further SW 5-8 kts overnight. 17˚C. Cloudy and quite wet day, with squally showers and possibly some thunder in the afternoon. These showers will bring significant gusts. Again there will be 1-2 kts more just off Cowes when the wind is E.

Met Office: E/ESE 8-13 (20), easing E 5-8 after noon then S/SW 3-6 in the evening;

ECMWF: E/ESE 7-10, veering SW 5-8 in the evening;

NOAA’s GFS model: E/SE 8-11, veering SW 5-8 late afternoon.

Wednesday 28th: NW 5-8 kts backing W 8-12 kts after noon. 17˚C. Overcast & showery morning, brightening later. Quite an oppressive day – not much gradient wind around, but significant squalls.

Met Office: NW 6-10, backing W 8-12 (15) after noon;

ECMWF: SW-NW 3-8 in morning, settling W 8-12 after noon;

NOAA’s GFS model: NW 3-8 in morning, backing SW 7-11 after noon.

Thursday 29th: WNW/NW 7-11 (15) kts. 16˚C. Overcast with some sunny patches, and the airflow is moist with a succession of troughs and weak fronts coming through. The squally showers associated will sometimes be quite strong.

Met Office: WNW/NW 8-12 (16); ECMWF: NW/N 7-11; NOAA’s GFS model: W/SW 5-9.

Friday 30th: NW backing W 10-15 (20) kts. 16˚C. Cloudy day with rain at times, clearing later as the wind backs.

Met Office: WNW backing W 10-15 (20);

ECMWF: NW backing W 8-13;

NOAA’s GFS model: NW 8-12.

Saturday 1st July: WNW/W 12-17 (23) kts. 17˚C. Cloudy day, some sunny spells, mostly dry. Gusts increasing in the afternoon as the Island heats up. Visibility should be good unless it rains.

Met Office: WNW backing W 12-15 (23);

ECMWF: NW 10-13;

NOAA’s GFS model: NW/W 10-15.

Sunday 2nd: WNW/W 10-15 (22) kts. 18˚C. Cloudy with sunny patches, mostly dry.

Met Office: W 10-15 (22); ECMWF: W 10-13; NOAA’s GFS model: W 10-15.

Met Office analysis chart for 0100 today (top) and forecast chart for 0100 tomorrow (bottom). Old fronts with not much gradient today, small low developing over France overnight. L currently W or Ireland moves closer & deepens.

Thermal infra-red images for 0100 (left) & 0700 (right) this morning. Low frontal remnants over the S coast, developing low coming in W of Ireland.

Weather Outlook for the Round The Island Race 1st July 2017

General Situation (all times in BST)

Today, Tuesday, will see the last of the E wind coming off the ridge over the North Sea. There is a developing low currently over Ireland moving E, and today should see the wind mostly moderate ESE, veering & dropping SE this afternoon then light WSW in the evening & overnight. It will be a wet & muggy day, with showers, some heavy & thundery, on and off after noon and through the night. By tomorrow, Wednesday, this low should be centred over S England and have grown in size if not in strength, with a succession of weak fronts & troughs circulating. This will bring a light to moderate W, veering NW later on, and a mostly overcast and showery day.

On Thursday the low should be centred in the S North Sea, bringing a moderate NNW backing W/WSW airflow through the Solent, still with cloudy and occasionally showery conditions. Into Friday this low should be moving further E with the E edge of a ridge moving in across Ireland & the W UK. This should give moderate occasionally blustery W veering NW winds into Friday night.

This ridge should flatten out ahead of the next low on Saturday morning. This will bring a moderate, occasionally gusty, NW wind to start, backing moderate to strong W later on. There should be a lot more sun than previous days, with less chance of rain too. These moderate to strong W should persist through Sunday.

Gusts are likely to be 1/3 as much again as the average wind speed. Squall-driven gusts may be higher still – the deeper the cloud, the stronger the gust.

Tuesday 27th: ESE 10-14 (gusting 16) kts before noon, easing & veering SE 5-9 kts after, veering further SW 5-8 kts overnight. 17˚C. Cloudy and wet day, with squally gusty showers, some possibly thundery, in the afternoon. There will be 1-2 kts more just off Cowes when the wind is ESE.

Met Office: ESE 10-13 (17), easing SE 4-7 after noon then SW 3-6 in the evening & overnight;

ECMWF: E 7-10 this morning, easing after noon, veering W 5-8 overnight;

NOAA’s GFS model: SE 6-9, veering SW 2-5 late afternoon.

Wednesday 28th: W 7-11 kts veering NW 9-13 (15) kts in the early evening. 18˚C. Overcast & showery throughout the day, more chance of sunny patches in the afternoon. Quite muggy.

Met Office: W 6-9, veering NW 8-12 (14) in the evening;

ECMWF: W/NW 8-11 throughout;

NOAA’s GFS model: W/SW 8-11 in the morning, settling W 8-11 in the evening.

Thursday 29th: NW 7-11 (12) kts, backing W then WSW 8-12 (15). 17˚C. Overcast with some sunny patches, with some of the showers quite heavy at times.

Met Office: NNW backing W then SW 8-12 (16);

ECMWF: W backing SW 5-8;

NOAA’s GFS model: W backing SW 7-10.

Friday 30th: WSW 7-11 veering NNW 10-15 (25) kts. 17˚C. Cloudy & quite showery & blustery when it veers.

Met Office: WSW 5-8 veering NNW 10-15 (21);

ECMWF: SW 5-8 veering NW 12-17;

NOAA’s GFS model: SW 5-8 veering NW 7-10.

Saturday 1st July: NW 10-15 (20) to start, backing W 12-17 (25). 18˚C. Patchy cloud, sunny spells, mostly dry. The sunshine should warm the Island up, making the afternoon more gusty and shifty. Visibility should be good except in any rain.

Met Office: NW 11-13 (20) backing W 14-16 (24);

ECMWF: NW 10-13 backing W 15-18;

NOAA’s GFS model: N/NW 9-11 backing W 7-10.

Sunday 2nd: W 10-15 (24) kts. 19˚C. Cloudy with sunny patches, mostly dry.

Met Office: W 12-15 (24); ECMWF: W 13-14; NOAA’s GFS model: W/NW 8-10.

Met Office analysis for 0100 today (top) and forecast for 0100 tomorrow (bottom). E still coming in this morning, changing W later on as the low over Ireland moves E and becomes more complex overnight.

Thermal infra-red images for 0100 (left) & 0700 (right) this morning. Low slowly moving in over Ireland, further convection clusters over Europe & Biscay that will develop into the rather amorphous low shown in tomorrow morning’s forecast chart above.

Met Office forecast for Saturday July 1st, 1300. Moderate to strong NW backing W/WSW airflow with a decaying front overhead.

Weather Outlook for the Round The Island Race 1st July 2017

General Situation (all times in BST)

Today will be a light wind, quite oppressive and wet day. The collection of large convective clusters is coming together to form a low today, loosely centred to the E, and this will bring light NW through today & tonight with a lot of drizzle and occasionally heavy rain. The Met Office has issued a yellow rain warning, but so far most of it is falling in the W. This low will move gradually N overnight into tomorrow, Thursday, with the wind backing NW through to SW through the day and staying light to moderate. It will be a cloudy but drier day.

On Friday the main body of this low should move E towards the Baltic, with a ridge coming in from the Atlantic. This will bring initially light SW winds as the low moves away, veering NW/NNW later as the leading edge of the ridge moves E. It will be a cloudy day again but brighter, with occasional showers. This ridge seems to have slowed down, and so Saturday should start off with moderate and sometimes gusty NNW, backing WNW/W through the afternoon. It should be a brighter day again, with broken cloud, sunny spells and possibly the occasional shower. This moderate WNW should persist through Sunday, together with the mostly dry but cloudy skies.

Gusts are likely to be 1/3 as much again as the average wind speed. Squall-driven gusts may be higher still – the deeper the cloud, the stronger the gust.

Wednesday 28th: NW 5-8 through the day, veering N 6-10 overnight. 17˚C. Overcast with rain throughout the day, sometimes heavy. Visibility moderate, occasionally poor in rain.

Met Office: NW/NNW 4-6, veering N 7-10 in evening;

ECMWF: W 4-6 veering NW/N 6-8 overnight;

NOAA’s GFS model: W/SW 4-6 veering N 5-6 overnight.

Thursday 29th: N 6-10 backing NW 5-8 then WSW 8-12 during the afternoon. 16˚C. Overcast, some showers around dawn, mostly dry after that.

Met Office: NNW 8-10 backing W 5-7 by noon then WSW 8-12;

ECMWF: N 6-8 backing W 4-6 by noon then SW 5-8;

NOAA’s GFS model: N 3-5 backing SW 2-4 in the morning increasing 8-10 later.

Friday 30th: SW 4-7 initially, becoming quite shifty & patchy then settling in and building NNW 8-12 by dusk. 19˚C. Overcast, brighter spells with perhaps even sunny patches in the afternoon, some showers.

Met Office: SW/WSW 5-7 veering NNW 9-12 (gusting 15) by dusk;

ECMWF: SW 5-8 veering N 7-11 after dusk;

NOAA’s GFS model: NW 4-6 building 8-12 through the day 7 overnight.

Saturday 1st July: NNW 10-15 (20) to start, backing W/WNW 10-15 (20) after noon. 19˚C. Patchy cloud, sunny spells, mostly dry. Any sun will warm the Island making the winds going over it in the afternoon more gusty & shifty. Visibility should be good except in any rain.

Met Office: NNW 10-12 (20) backing W/WNW 10-12 (19) by dusk;

ECMWF: N 8-14 backing W 11-13 after noon;

NOAA’s GFS model: N/NW 10-12 backing W 10-12 after noon.

Sunday 2nd: W/WNW 10-15 (20) kts. 19˚C. Cloudy with sunny patches, mostly dry.

Met Office: W/WNW 11-13 (21); ECMWF: W 12-14; NOAA’s GFS model: W 9-11.

Met Office analysis for 0100 today (top) and forecast for 0100 tomorrow (bottom). Low starting to come together and showing more definition by tomorrow. Much moisture around – fronts & troughs will make it a grey & damp day.

Thermal infra-red images for 0100 (left) & 0400 (right) this morning. All rather messy – slow moving front coming in from the West Country, combining with convection all over the S North Sea.

Met Office forecast for Saturday July 1st, 1300. Moderate NNW about to back WNW as the ridge pushes over. The sequence forecast has slowed down a little from yesterday.

Weather Outlook for the Round The Island Race 1st July 2017

General Situation (all times in BST)

The low centred on the W edge of the North Sea should stay much where it is today, and slowly rotate. As it does the early morning N winds should back WSW, and remain light throughout. It should be another cloudy day, but drier than yesterday. During Friday the low will initially remain there, but then start to get pushed E by the incoming ridge from the N Atlantic, with the breeze veering NNW overnight, with more sunny patches too. On Saturday the ridge should pass over with the next low creeping in to the W. The light to moderate NNW/N winds should remain for the morning, staring to back towards WNW around noon. It should be a mostly dry day with a mixture of sunshine & cloudy patches. This should carry on through Sunday, with moderate W expected.

Gusts are likely to be 1/3 as much again as the average wind speed. Squall-driven gusts may be higher still – the deeper the cloud, the stronger the gust.

Thursday 29th: N/NNW 5-8, backing WSW 7-11 by noon, settling through the afternoon & evening. 16˚C. Overcast, some rain.

Met Office: NNW 6-8 backing WSW 5-8 by noon;

ECMWF: N 6-8 backing W 6-8 by early afternoon;

NOAA’s GFS model: NW 3-4 backing SW 3-4 by noon then veering NW 3-4 after dusk.

Friday 30th: W/WNW 4-7 to start, increasing gradually 6-10 to dusk, then veering NNW 8-12 overnight. 19˚C. Overcast with sunny patches, some evening rain likely.

Met Office: W/WNW 4-8, veering NNW 8-12 (gusting 15) after dusk.

ECMWF: W/SW 5-8 through the day to midnight.

NOAA’s GFS model: N/NW 3-5 to start, backing W/SW 4-6 by noon, veering NW/N 6-8 by dusk.

Saturday 1st July: initially NNW 9-13 (18), backing WNW 8-12 (15) in the early afternoon. 20˚C. Patchy cloud with sunny spells & mostly dry. The Island warming during the day will make the afternoon winds more shifty & patchy. The visibility should be good, perhaps moderate in any rain.

Met Office: NNW 10-12 (18) backing around noon towards W/WNW 10-12 (17) by mid-afternoon;

ECMWF: N 7-10 backing NW then W 9-12 by mid-afternoon;

NOAA’s GFS model: N 9-13 backing W 6-8 by mid-afternoon.

Sunday 2nd: W 10-15 (20) kts. 20˚C. Cloudy with sunny patches.

Met Office: W/WNW 10-12 (20); ECMWF: W 12-16; NOAA’s GFS model: W/NW 6-10.

Met Office analysis for 0100 today (top) and forecast for 0100 tomorrow (bottom). Low staying where it is for most of today, with the ridge starting to move in overnight.

Thermal infra-red images for 0100 (left) & 0700 (right) this morning. Low circulating slowly, NNW/SSE streaks of cloud way W showing flow ahead of the ridge.

Met Office forecast for Saturday July 1st, 1300. Moderate NNW with a bend in the isobars just W indicating the coming back to WNW. In between fronts – let’s hope it stays like that.